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Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election ↗
will-chong-won-oh-win-the-2026-seoul-mayoral-election
· 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner · category: Elections, Global Elections, Politics, South Korea, World, World Elections
· resolves
run_id: d83e3403-29b4-4f2e-b391-08722a2c0306
· started
· status
skipped
· audit_blocked
· ✕ audit blocked
Theta Hard Rule (NEAR-TERM): LLM stated 'f-check: no change.
Theta direction: NEUTRAL
Price move direction: DOWN (from 92% to 83%)
Alignment:' but output UNDERPRICED instead of FAIR. Days to close: 21 (≤60). E=0, D=0, opposing (DOWN)=0 — no Strong Divergence (need opposing ≥4).
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
UP
current / peak
85.5% / 83.0%
move_start
92.0%
reversal
+2.5pp
move size / hours
9.0pp / 18.5h
shape
spike
72h range
83.0%—93.5% (Δ10.5pp)
since peak
2.0h
Price fell 9.0pp from 92.0% to 83.0% over 18.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 85.5%, up 2.5pp from trough, 2.0h after the trough.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 179 → 7
quality: HIGH
tokens: 16154
article_thesis
relevant
정원오·오세훈 지지율 격차, 두자리에서 한 자릿수로 - 사회 | 기사 - 더팩트
article_thesis
relevant
與 조작기소 특검법 역풍 '보수 결집'...서울·영남 지지율 격차 확 줄었다
article_thesis
relevant
[여론조사 '경향'] 대구·경남은 접전, 서울·부산은 민주당 우위... 국정 지지율은 소폭 하락
article_precursor
relevant
오세훈, 여론조사 격차 "서울시민 정책 효과 체감 필요해" | 아주경제
article_precursor
relevant
오세훈 "여론조사 격차, 빠른 속도로 줄고 있어"
gnews_thesis
relevant
정원오 "서울시장 선거 박빙 될 것…민생 아닌 정쟁 몰두 안 돼" - 뉴스1
gnews_antithesis
relevant
[6·3 지방선거] 전현희, 서울 유세 총괄 서울 승리로 내란 청산·민주주의 완성할 것 - 아주경제
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
UNDERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
action: YES
override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.8 · 15335 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES=Chong Won-oh wins; NO=he loses. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=1 (credible poll showing the gap narrowed), L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: DOWN (from 92% to 83%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline No Strong Divergence; news is ALIGNED with the drop but limited to a single credible poll (Gallup via News1: 46–38, gap to single digits) and opponent rhetoric, with no ★ DIRECT resolution-level events (no withdrawal, disqualification, scandal, or institutional endorsement shift). One D9-type counter-poll can justify a moderate repricing (~5pp), but a 9pp slide looks like partial overshoot, corroborated by the immediate 2.5pp rebound. Net: the move was only partially justified; expect some mean reversion upward.
rule audit
✕ blocked
audit_gate
✕
A_THETA_NEAR_TERM
Theta Hard Rule (NEAR-TERM): LLM stated 'f-check: no change.
Theta direction: NEUTRAL
Price move direction: DOWN (from 92% to 83%)
Alignment:' but output UNDERPRICED instead of FAIR. Days to close: 21 (≤60). E=0, D=0, opposing (DOWN)=0 — no Strong Divergence (need opposing ≥4).
step post-omit
● executed
news watch (A.2 / A.3)
watch: 6471b571
status:
⏳ expired
armed: 2026-05-13T12:12Z
closed: 2026-05-14T12:38Z
polls: 6
signals seen: 4140
decision price: 85.5pct