US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? ↗

Price fell 11.0pp from 36.5% to 25.5% over 13.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 28.5%, up 3.0pp from trough, 0.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 54.5%, 72h range: 21.5%-58.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = at least one US–Iran diplomatic meeting is scheduled/held by May 15, 2026; NO = no such meeting occurs by the deadline. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=3). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 36% to 26%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No ★ DIRECT reports of a meeting being scheduled or held; incremental headlines emphasize “talks stall” and continued rejection/skepticism (e.g., “talks stall,” “US waiting as talks stall”), which reduce near-term meeting odds rather than advance resolution. With a near-term deadline, the downward move is theta-aligned and supported by at least one fresh blocker, and there is no opposing cluster (no new meeting scheduling/signals), so the 11pp drop is justified rather than an overreaction.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.