US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? ↗

Price fell 8.5pp from 59.0% to 50.5% over 9h (steady). Now at 50.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 59.5%, 72h range: 50.5%-66.0%]

Days to resolution: 38 days. Theta-bleed is not strongly active (deadline > 90 days), so time decay is negligible over this 2-3 day window. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming less likely), and the ★DIRECT news predominantly supports de-escalation: the US has unilaterally extended the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, even as talks stall and Iran refuses to participate without a change in US blockade policy. After clustering, there is one distinct real-world event: the US extending the ceasefire and delaying talks, confirmed by multiple outlets. This is a D3 (deadline extended, ultimatum softened) and D8 (actor seeks diplomatic off-ramp) signal, with no escalation or breakdown—just a pause and continued absence of progress. The news is plateauing, with repeated coverage of the same event and no new actors or concrete steps toward a permanent peace deal. Momentum signals: trend=1 (de-escalation), counter=0 (no escalation or deal progress). Remaining space: 45pp (from 50.5% to 100% or 0%). Step 3 hard rule check: No news-trend conflict, not highly mixed, and the move is steady with a widely confirmed concrete action (ceasefire extension) supporting the trend. No reversal or exhaustion signals present.