US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? ↗

Price rose 6.0pp from 49.5% to 55.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 55.5%.

Days to resolution: 241 days. Theta-bleed check: Deadline is >90 days, so time decay is negligible over the next few days. The ★DIRECT news (Iran formally transmitting a new proposal to the U.S. via Pakistan and conditioning progress on a U.S. approach change) supports YES; the trend is UP, so direction aligns. Overall this is ASYMMETRIC MIXED: one concrete process step toward talks (stronger quality) versus U.S. presidential skepticism and hardliner rhetoric (resistance, but largely rhetorical). The story is actively developing with multiple outlets noting the proposal and U.S. review, providing a matching catalyst for the spike and potential follow-through. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=1. Remaining space: 44.5pp. Hard rule check: No Rule 1 conflict; Rule 3 ASYMMETRIC MIXED applies (cap conviction at MEDIUM and move ≤5pp); Rule 5 (spike exhaustion) not triggered given a concrete catalyst; other rules not binding.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.