Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? ↗

Price fell 9.7pp from 24.6% to 14.9% over 1.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 19.2%, up 4.4pp from trough, 3.0h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 9.0%, 72h range: 7.4%-40.8%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Lee Jae-myung is arrested before 2027; NO = he is not arrested by then. Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 25% to 15%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical Divergence or Strong Divergence exists; the drop is consistent with time decay and there are zero opposing E signals. There are no ★ DIRECT reports of an arrest warrant, court approval of detention, or actual arrest—only opinion/context pieces criticizing Lee, which do not advance the arrest pathway under typical settlement criteria. Given the far-term deadline and absence of countervailing E-signals, a ~10pp intraday drift lower is theta-aligned and thus justified rather than an overreaction.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.