Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? ↗

Price rose 8.5pp from 41.5% to 50.0% over 9.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 48.0%, down 2.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 25.5%, 72h range: 23.5%-67.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump announces the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026 (cessation/announcement); NO = no such announcement by then. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. 
Momentum check: E=5, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified).
Incremental only: E=5, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=0).
Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 42% to 50%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Logical Divergence: the price rose and news flow was net de-escalatory (talks/progress/pauses). Key signals: Trump paused “Project Freedom” to allow talks, publicly tied an end-of-war and reopening/lifting the blockade to Iran’s acceptance, reports of a draft framework to end hostilities, and Iranian statements about ensuring safe passage — all move closer to the required announcement but do not yet satisfy it; offsetting D: fresh threats of “higher intensity” bombing, a ship attack, and a hardline negotiator pick. Several medium-impact, process E signals reasonably support an 8.5pp repricing; with extreme-vol regime and no contradiction, the move is FAIR rather than an overreaction.

Kill switches:
- Trump formally announces that the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted (resolution-level confirmation).
- White House/Trump publicly states there is no plan to lift the blockade or denies prior signals of imminent lifting.
- Major kinetic escalation in the Strait (e.g., multiple ships hit/sunk with casualties) within days, with the US expanding operations.
- Pentagon announces the pause of “Project Freedom” is revoked and operations are escalated/restarted at higher tempo.
- Iran or the US formally rejects or walks away from the reported draft/framework to end hostilities.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.