Starmer out by December 31, 2026? ↗

Price fell 12.5pp from 60.0% to 47.5% over 23.5h (front_loaded), then reversed. Now at 49.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 7.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 56.5%, 72h range: 47.5%-71.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES=Starmer leaves office by Dec 31, 2026; NO=Starmer remains PM through that date. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World (greater survival odds). Momentum check: E=2-3, D=3-4, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=3 (priced-in: E=2, D=1). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 60% to 48%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Strong Divergence: opposing (E) < 3, so the drop is not contradicted by fresh pro-YES momentum. Specific events during the move window favored survival: Starmer publicly refused to resign and vowed to “fight on” (D), Andy Burnham pulled out of a speech billed as a leadership challenge (D), and senior figures (e.g., David Lammy) signaled backing (D), while the main pro-YES items (heavy local losses, some MPs urging resignation, reports Miliband floated a timeline) were largely earlier and/or offset. With a far-term deadline and theta-aligned repricing, plus incremental D signals, the ~12.5pp decline is justified rather than an overreaction likely to revert.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.