Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? ↗

Price rose 3.0pp from 28.5% to 31.5% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 31.5%.

Days to resolution: 193 days. Theta-bleed is negligible since the deadline is more than 90 days away, so absence of news does not inherently favor a move in either direction. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no polling, endorsements, campaign developments, or process news directly referencing Bernadette Wilson or the Alaska governor race outcome. The trend is UP (YES more likely), but the news is entirely CONTEXT: one article discusses the crowded Alaska governor field (no candidate-specific momentum), another is a policy Q&A with all candidates (no resolution-class movement), and the third is about Oklahoma, not Alaska. Thus, the news is STARVED for resolution-relevant content and does not align with the price move. Momentum assessment: The story is not intensifying; there is no new catalyst, and coverage is thin (⚠ COVERAGE WARNING). Signal classification: all three events are NOISE for this market; none are momentum or resistance. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 18.5pp (from 31.5% to 50%). Step 3 hard rule check: No news-trend conflict, but per Principle 1 and the rules, with zero ★DIRECT signals and only context/noise, the move lacks news justification. The move is front-loaded with no follow-through catalyst, and the absence of direct news means the price is likely to stall at this new level rather than continue upward.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.