Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? ↗

Price rose 9.2pp from 19.2% to 28.4% over 9.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 21.1%, down 7.3pp from peak, 3.0h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 17.1%, 72h range: 7.2%-92.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Rocha is no longer Governor by May 31 (removed/resigned/permanently replaced), NO = he remains Governor or is only on temporary leave. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=1, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 19% to 28%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Logical Divergence: only one incremental D opposes the rise, far from the ≥3 needed to override the Extreme Volatility default. The only ★ DIRECT item is Rocha’s temporary license/interim governor installed (priced-in and, strictly, “temporary leave” does not itself satisfy “out by May 31”); the fresh coverage is process/context (federal support for the interim, legal commentary that he’d need desafuero or resignation), not a new removal action. Given the 85pp 72h range and lack of multiple fresh, opposing signals, a 9pp uptick on process-only headlines is within fair repricing noise rather than an overreaction.

Kill switches:
- Sinaloa Congress votes to remove Rocha/revoke his mandate and installs Yeraldine Bonilla as permanent governor
- Rocha announces his resignation effective immediately
- Federal court orders Rocha suspended from office pending trial
- FGR secures an arrest warrant and Rocha is detained, with Congress initiating permanent replacement procedures
- Mexican government accepts a U.S. extradition request and initiates formal transfer steps that legally force him from office by May 31

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.