Starmer out by December 31, 2026? ↗

Price rose 10.0pp from 52.5% to 62.5% over 4.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 60.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 2.0h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 67.5%, 72h range: 52.5%-71.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES=Starmer is out of office by 2026-12-31; NO=Starmer remains PM through that date. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 52% to 62%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence: signals are mixed, and key D signals (Starmer explicitly refusing to resign; Deputy PM Lammy publicly backing him) run against the UP move, while E signals are limited to calls from one MP and a former minister—pressure but not mechanisms. There are no ★ DIRECT resolution steps (no no-confidence vote scheduled, no leadership challenge formally launched, no resignation), so a 10pp repricing on process/pressure alone is likely an overshoot. The move was not justified by concrete steps toward removal and should mean-revert lower.