Kash Patel out by May 31? ↗

Price fell 4.5pp from 15.0% to 10.5% over 4h (steady). Now at 10.5%.

Days to resolution: 17 days. YES-WORLD: Kash Patel is out of his post by May 31 (e.g., resignation effective, firing/removal officially announced); NO-WORLD: he remains in office past May 31 or any scandal/hearing without a formal removal action is a near-miss — there are no ★DIRECT events to label (no resignation, firing, or formal removal process initiated). Theta-bleed check: this is a time-decay ouster market with positive action required; with 17 days left, time passage structurally favors NO, so a NO-price decline needs concrete catalysts to sustain. The ★DIRECT news supports neither side (none present), while the trend is DOWN in NO (implying YES more likely), so alignment is MIXED/neutral rather than supported by resolution-class developments. Coverage is largely hearing theatrics, allegations, and denials without any institutional step toward removal — plateauing commentary rather than action; Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0; Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With zero direct signals and theta plus the ≤20% boundary effect, the down move is more likely to stall near current levels than to extend; Remaining space: 10.5pp. Hard-rule check: Rule 4 (use of “plateauing”) binds to STALL, and Rule 7 (theta-bleed + boundary) also biases STALL absent a fresh removal catalyst.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.