Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? ↗

Price rose 5.6pp from 22.7% to 28.3% over 1h (spike). Now at 28.3%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 15.9%, 72h range: 15.8%-28.9%]

Days to resolution: 40 days. Theta-bleed check: This is a time-deadline market within 90 days that requires a positive outcome; in the absence of concrete pro-YES developments, time decay is mildly bearish for YES, so theta-bleed does not support an UP move. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED (there are no direct items at all), while the trend is UP for YES; this is not aligned. News momentum is STARVED: only a generic primary calendar and an unrelated statewide poll article were retrieved, with no filings, withdrawals, polls of the GOP primary, endorsements, or rule changes tied to Kim Farington. With zero concrete signals, the +5.6pp jump looks like a liquidity-driven spike lacking a matching catalyst, which tends to fade over the next sessions. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 71.7pp. Step 3 check: No NEWS-TREND conflict, not balanced mixed; Rule 5 (spike exhaustion with no fresh catalyst) tilts to REVERSE; no other binding rules.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.