Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? ↗

Price rose 5.6pp from 27.6% to 33.2% over 1h (spike). Now at 33.2%.

Days to resolution: 229 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over a 2-3 day horizon given the long time to resolution. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no news directly referencing the Fed funds rate at 3.75% at end-2026, nor any concrete Fed action or official forward guidance. The trend is UP (YES becoming more likely), but the news is only CONTEXT: rising inflation concerns due to the Iran conflict, higher oil prices, and speculation about Fed regime change. These are indirect signals that might increase the perceived probability of higher rates, but none are process steps or official signals toward a 3.75% upper bound. News momentum is plateauing: multiple articles discuss inflation and market anxiety, but there is no new escalation or concrete Fed action. Signal count: Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0 (no direct signals either way). Remaining space: 66.8pp. The move is a spike (+5.6pp) with no matching ★DIRECT catalyst—suggesting the move is likely driven by sentiment or liquidity rather than new information. Step 3 hard rule check: RULE 5 (Spike exhaustion) applies—spike >5pp, no fresh catalyst, news plateauing—so action must be STALL, not CONTINUE. No other hard rules bind.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.