Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? ↗

Price fell 2.9pp from 25.5% to 22.6% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 22.6%.

Days to resolution: 45 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline <90 days, trend DOWN, positive action required), so absence of positive news for Sánchez Palomino is bearish for YES. The ★DIRECT news during this window is a single concrete result: Juntos por el Perú (Sánchez Palomino's party) is leading in Puno with 96% of votes counted, securing congressional seats—this is a positive signal for Sánchez, but it is regional and legislative, not directly presidential. The CONTEXT news is mixed: there is a key resignation in the electoral authority amid irregularity allegations (potentially destabilizing, but not clearly directional for Sánchez), commentary on whether rivals can beat Sánchez (opinion, not action), and confirmation that the presidential runoff candidates will not be officially known until May. The trend is DOWN (NO more likely), but the only ★DIRECT event is a positive, if limited, signal for Sánchez (YES), so the news and price move are in CONFLICT. Momentum is plateauing: the only concrete news is regional, not national, and there are no new catalysts or intensifying developments. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=1 (the single ★DIRECT event is mildly bullish for Sánchez, counter to the price move). Remaining space: 17.6pp. Step 3 hard rule: RULE 1 binds (NEWS-TREND CONFLICT), so action must be STALL or REVERSE.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.