Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? ↗

Price fell 6.0pp from 67.0% to 61.0% over 11h (front_loaded). Now at 61.0%.

Days to resolution: 253 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this 2-3 day horizon, as the deadline is well over 90 days away. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming less likely, i.e., market is pricing Mojtaba Khamenei as more likely to be head of state at end-2026). The ★DIRECT news is MIXED but leans toward increased uncertainty: (1) Khamenei's death leaves succession unclear (momentum for NO, as it introduces instability), but (2) multiple reports confirm Mojtaba Khamenei is acting as de facto leader, giving the nod for peace talks and continuing negotiations (momentum for YES, as these are concrete actions in a head-of-state role). There is also confirmation that Mojtaba survived a recent airstrike and is still present, albeit with minor injuries, which removes immediate succession risk. After clustering, there are 3 distinct ★DIRECT events: (a) succession uncertainty post-Khamenei death (NO), (b) Mojtaba giving orders for negotiations (YES), (c) confirmation of Mojtaba's survival and activity (YES). Momentum signals: trend=2 (YES), counter=1 (NO). The news cycle is plateauing—no new escalation or succession crisis, but rather confirmation of Mojtaba's ongoing authority. Remaining space: 11pp (from 61% to 50%). Step 3 hard rule check: This is ASYMMETRIC MIXED—YES-side signals (Mojtaba acting as head of state, giving orders, surviving attack) are more concrete and recent than the single NO-side uncertainty signal. Therefore, per Rule 3, CONTINUE is allowed but conviction is capped at MEDIUM and estimated_move ≤ 5pp.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.