Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? ↗

Price rose 2.5pp from 24.0% to 26.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 26.5%.

Days to resolution: 249 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this short window, as the deadline is >90 days away. The trend is UP (+2.5pp spike), implying YES is becoming more likely. The ★DIRECT news during this period includes: (1) a federal judge issuing penalties against a legal team in an Epstein-linked case involving Leon Black, and (2) the US DOJ blocking UK access to unredacted Epstein files, requiring a formal request for further investigation. After clustering, these represent two distinct real-world developments: one is a concrete legal action (penalties in an Epstein-linked case), and the other is a process step (DOJ's stance on file sharing). Both are process/procedural, not final charges, but the judge's action is a tangible escalation in legal scrutiny around Epstein-linked actors. The DOJ's bureaucratic delay is a resistance signal, as it slows investigative momentum. The story is not intensifying—there is no new indictment or charge, but there is a fresh, concrete legal action (penalty) and ongoing procedural friction. Momentum signals: trend=1 (judge's penalty), counter=1 (DOJ blocking files). Remaining space: 23.5pp (to 50%). The move is a small spike, and the news is ASYMMETRIC MIXED: the judge's penalty is a higher-quality, concrete action than the DOJ's bureaucratic delay, but neither is a direct charge. Step 3: Rule 3 (ASYMMETRIC MIXED) applies—CONTINUE is allowed, but conviction must be ≤ MEDIUM and move ≤ 5pp. No other hard rules bind.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.