Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? ↗

Price fell 3.2pp from 62.3% to 59.1% over 1h (spike). Now at 59.1%.

Days to resolution: 236 days. Election/leadership market — Theta: NEUTRAL. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports neither side; there are no resolution-touching items, and the lone vaguely relevant context (a former U.S. ambassador saying delayed transition benefits Chavismo) aligns with the DOWN move but is commentary, not action. Momentum looks starved: a small 1h spike down with no matching ★DIRECT catalyst suggests liquidity/noise rather than information-driven pressure, and there’s no sign of intensifying, concrete developments about Maduro’s tenure. After clustering, all four items are NOISE. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With zero fresh signals and a long horizon, follow-through is unlikely; stabilization is more probable than continued drift. Remaining space: 59.1pp. Hard rule check: Rule 4 (plateauing/starved) binds → must be STALL; no other hard rules trigger.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.