Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? ↗

Price fell 9.5pp from 42.5% to 33.0% over 2h (spike). Now at 33.0%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 39.0%, 72h range: 32.0%-58.5%] [EVR: 72h range 26.5pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 36 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market requires a positive action (Trump announcing end of military operations against Iran by May 31st), the deadline is within 90 days, and the trend is DOWN. There are zero ★DIRECT events—no concrete actions, announcements, or filings directly touching the resolution criteria. The CONTEXT news is dominated by reports that Trump has canceled his envoys' trip to Pakistan for talks with Iran, with multiple outlets confirming this as a setback for peace talks and a sign that diplomatic progress has stalled. There is also explicit language from Trump ruling out a ceasefire renewal without Iranian concessions. However, there is no evidence of new escalation, resumed military operations, or any physical action—just the absence of diplomatic progress. The DOWN move is a spike (-9.5pp) and aligns with the lack of progress toward a YES outcome, which, in a theta-bleed market, supports further drift downward in the absence of positive signals. News momentum is plateauing: the story is being repeated across outlets, but no new actors or actions have emerged. Momentum signals: trend=1 (process setback), counter=0 (no new YES momentum). Remaining space: 33pp. Step 3 hard rule check: No CONFLICT, not highly MIXED, not echo/plateauing in a way that blocks theta-bleed, and the move is not exhausted (no reversal catalyst). Theta-bleed supports further drift.