Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ↗

Price rose 8.0pp from 29.5% to 37.5% over 4h (front_loaded). Now at 37.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 33.5%, 72h range: 29.5%-50.0%] [EVR: 72h range 20.5pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 244 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this horizon, so time decay does not materially bias the short-term trend. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT signals—no confirmed US invasion, troop movement, or operational orders—so the news does not directly support the YES direction. The trend is UP (YES more likely), but the news is not aligned: all escalation signals are contextual (rhetoric, threats, weapons announcements, military requests, and media speculation about possible strikes or blockades), not physical actions. News momentum is INTENSIFYING in terms of volume and rhetoric, with multiple stories about US CENTCOM requesting hypersonic missiles, Trump being briefed on strike options, and Iran threatening countermeasures, but per Principle 4 and the military action module, none of these constitute concrete escalation signals—no physical deployments or strikes. After clustering, momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0 (all NOISE). Remaining space: 12.5pp (from 37.5% to 50%). The move is front-loaded and not supported by a direct catalyst, suggesting it may be liquidity-driven or an echo of contextual escalation. Step 3: Hard rules bind—no ★DIRECT signals, rhetoric is not action, and the move is a >5pp spike with no concrete catalyst, so per Rule 5 and Principle 4, STALL is required.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.