Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? ↗

Price fell 11.5pp from 35.5% to 24.0% over 5h (front_loaded). Now at 24.0%.

Days to resolution: 21 days. Election/leadership market — Theta: NEUTRAL. YES-WORLD: the market resolves YES if Kim Boo-kyum is officially declared the winner of the 2026 Daegu mayoral election. NO-WORLD: it resolves NO if anyone else is officially declared winner or if no official win for Kim is recorded by the settlement date (polls or “near-leads” are near-misses). The one ★DIRECT item is a poll showing a 0.4pp razor-thin race; it is EVIDENCE-tier-via-NEAR-MISS (a poll, not a result) and is STALE (published 2026-05-10), though directionally favorable to YES. The ★DIRECT news thus supports YES and the trend is DOWN in the NO contract, so they align, but with no fresh catalyst the momentum looks starved/plateauing and the front-loaded drop likely reflects late digestion of that older poll. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=1, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0; Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 24pp; with no new YES-side developments, a full follow-through lower is less likely than a partial reversion toward prior levels. Hard-rule checks: no news-trend conflict (Rule 1 not binding); use of “plateauing/starved” blocks CONTINUE (Rule 4), and spike >5pp with no fresh catalyst favors REVERSE (Rule 5).

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.