Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? ↗

Price fell 12.1pp from 97.2% to 85.1% over 9h (spike). Now at 85.1%.

Days to resolution: 3 days. Theta-bleed active: this is a deadline market requiring a positive action (Powell out) and, absent concrete news, drift favors NO; therefore this DOWN move (NO falling, YES rising) needs real catalysts to sustain. YES-WORLD: Powell is “out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026” (no longer Chair by that date); NO-WORLD: he remains Chair through May 16, including cases where a successor is confirmed or expected but not yet in office. ★ Crypto Briefing “Powell to step down” = EVIDENCE-tier-via-NEAR-MISS (rumor/market chatter with no formal action or effective date by May 16); ★ Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor = EVIDENCE-tier-via-NEAR-MISS (a Senate-confirmed step that does not itself remove Powell by the deadline). The ★DIRECT news tilts toward YES in narrative but lacks ACTION that satisfies the criterion; the trend is DOWN (NO falling), so alignment exists but is weak and inference-driven. This looks like a catalyst-driven spike (Warsh confirmation) without a confirmed resignation/removal effective by May 16, so follow-through risk is high; Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=2, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0; Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With only near-misses and strong time pressure against a pre-deadline removal, continuation forces are thin while reversion-to-theta is plausible; Remaining space: 85.1pp. Hard-rule check: No clear NEWS-TREND conflict, ASYMMETRIC MIXED but weak quality on the YES side, and theta-bleed + boundary (≥80%) applies—prefer STALL absent a fresh ACTION; spike >5pp without lock-in also cautions against chasing.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.