Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? ↗

Price fell 2.6pp from 4.5% to 1.9% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 1.9%.

Days to resolution: 49 days. Theta-bleed check: This is a time-decay market within 90 days that requires a positive action (a specific “next” meeting in China), so theta-bleed is active; absent further concrete steps, drift should favor NO (bearish for YES). The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES: China officially confirmed Trump’s Beijing visit for May 13–15, which aligns with the DOWN move in NO. However, momentum is plateauing with a single concrete item and no confirmation that Putin will be in China or that a Trump–Putin meeting is scheduled. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=1, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0; Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Given the front-loaded move and boundary constraints, Remaining space: 1.9pp, further downside in NO likely needs an additional catalyst beyond the visit confirmation; without that, theta and lack of new signals argue for stabilization rather than follow-through. Hard rules: no news–trend conflict; Rule 4 (plateauing) and Rule 7 (theta-bleed + boundary) both point to STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.