Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? ↗

Price fell 3.0pp from 91.5% to 88.5% over 2h (steady). Now at 88.5%.

Days to resolution: 21 days. Election/leadership market — Theta: NEUTRAL. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES (Murillo withdrawing and endorsing Cepeda consolidates the progressive bloc), which aligns with the DOWN move in the NO contract, but most of that support is older than 24h and likely already priced. Momentum now looks starved: the only fresh ★DIRECT item is Cepeda refusing to attend debates before the first round, which is not an E9/E10/D9 momentum trigger and is at best mixed for his odds; there are no fresh polls, endorsements, or opponent-damage reports in the last 24h. After clustering: 2 distinct events from 3 ★DIRECT articles; Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=1, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With zero fresh countable signals and a steady 3pp drift from a boundary region, follow-through looks limited, so stabilization near current levels is more likely than further downside or a snap-back. Remaining space: 88.5pp. Step 3 hard rule check: RULE 4 (starved/plateauing) binds → STALL; no NEWS-TREND conflict (RULE 1) and not balanced mixed (RULE 2).

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.