Iran closes its airspace by May 31? ↗

Price fell 13.0pp from 51.5% to 38.5% over 13.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 47.0%, up 8.5pp from trough, 0.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 45.5%, 72h range: 33.5%-65.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Iran issues an official nationwide airspace closure (e.g., NOTAM/CAA order) by May 31; NO = no such closure. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 52% to 38%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned. No Logical/Strong Divergence (opposing E=0). There are no ★ DIRECT closure signals (no Iranian NOTAM/CAA notice); instead, verified de-escalatory statements dominate: the US says the truce holds and it is “not looking for a fight”/operation is temporary and defensive, and Pakistan touts significant progress in talks—these reasonably reduce near-term closure odds. Given a near-term deadline with time-decay aligned and no direct closure cues, a 13pp drop is consistent with theta plus modest de-escalation process news; the move is FAIR rather than an overreaction.

Kill switches:
- Iran Civil Aviation Organization issues a NOTAM closing Iranian airspace to overflights/civil traffic.
- Iran’s transport ministry or IRNA announces a nationwide temporary airspace shutdown due to security.
- Iranian ATC orders all commercial flights grounded nationwide, confirmed by state media.
- Major international carriers report being denied overflight by Iran citing an official closure notice.
- Large, confirmed US–Iran kinetic escalation (e.g., sustained strikes inside Iran) followed by Iran announcing intent to close airspace.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.