Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? ↗

Price fell 3.8pp from 8.8% to 5.0% over 1h (spike). Now at 5.0%.

Days to resolution: 180 days. Theta-bleed check: Not active (deadline > 90 days), so time decay does not favor NO over the next few days. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED (there are no direct, resolution-touching items), but qualitatively ASYMMETRIC MIXED toward YES because the only concrete datapoint in the feed is a Newsweek-cited SurveyUSA poll showing Steve Hilton getting a post-debate boost (primary), while opposing items are mostly opinion/attacks. Momentum looks debate-driven and now plateauing around commentary rather than new data; the spike appears to have been catalyzed by the poll mention plus a GOP rival’s gaffe, with no fresh quant signals since. Given zero ★DIRECT signals and proximity to the 0% boundary, follow-through is limited absent another credible statewide general-election poll or structural shift. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 5.0pp. Hard rule check: No NEWS-TREND conflict; ASYMMETRIC MIXED present but Rule 4 (plateauing) and boundary awareness constrain to STALL; Rule 7 (theta+boundary) not applicable; no multi-threshold or conflict-ending rules triggered.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.