Kash Patel out by December 31? ↗

Price rose 4.0pp from 63.5% to 67.5% over 2h (front_loaded). Now at 67.5%.

Days to resolution: 240 days. Theta-bleed is negligible here (deadline > 90 days), so absence of news does not mechanically push the price down or up over a 2–3 day horizon. The ★DIRECT news predominantly leans against YES: the only direct item cites Patel “announcing major reforms” alongside a noted drop in the sibling “out by June 30” market, implying reduced imminence of an exit; the trend is UP (YES more likely), so this is a CONFLICT. Momentum is starved/plateauing: nearly all coverage is SNL satire or opinion with no concrete process or personnel-move signals, and the move was front-loaded without a fresh, resolution-relevant catalyst. After clustering: 1 distinct ★DIRECT item from 27 articles, but it’s rhetoric/market commentary rather than an ACTION toward removal, so there are no countable action-tier signals on either side. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With no actionable catalysts and a mild counter-narrative against near-term departure, follow-through looks limited and the price should stabilize rather than extend higher; Remaining space: 32.5pp. Hard rules: Rule 1 (news–trend conflict) → must be STALL or REVERSE; Rule 4 (plateauing/starved phrasing) also points to STALL; move size (<5pp) does not trigger spike-exhaustion REVERSE.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.