Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? ↗

Price fell 6.1pp from 66.9% to 60.8% over 54.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 65.8%, up 5.1pp from trough, 32.0h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Mojtaba Khamenei is Iran’s head of state on Dec 31, 2026; NO = someone else holds that position then. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 67% to 61%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
There is no Logical or Strong Divergence; the drop occurred without any ★ DIRECT succession signals (no Assembly of Experts moves, no official appointments/endorsements, no succession announcement). Given a far-term “by date” leadership outcome where status quo continuation reduces YES over time, a modest 6pp drift down with only CONTEXT/op-eds is consistent with theta and thus reasonable rather than an overreaction.

Kill switches:
- Assembly of Experts formally names Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader or acting head of state.
- Iranian state media announces Mojtaba Khamenei has assumed the powers of head of state following a vacancy.
- Credible report (on record) that the Assembly of Experts convened an emergency session and selected Mojtaba as successor.
- Senior IRGC leadership publicly endorses Mojtaba as successor alongside reports of security consolidation around him.
- Constitutional or legal change elevates Mojtaba to a new post that directly precedes or entails head-of-state authority.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.