Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? ↗

Price rose 8.9pp from 34.1% to 43.0% over 11.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 38.5%, down 4.5pp from peak, 1.0h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 49.5%, 72h range: 16.0%-62.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Knesset formally dissolved by June 30 (coalition breaks/withdrawals or a dissolution bill advances and passes); NO = no formal dissolution by that date. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World.
Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified).
Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0).
Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 34% to 43%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Logical Divergence (there are no verified E/D/L signals opposing the move), and with a 46pp 72h range the Extreme Volatility default applies. The latest items (e.g., a Haredi spiritual leader giving a “green light” and opposition calls to dissolve) are RHETORIC/process, not ★ DIRECT steps like filing a dissolution bill, scheduling a vote, or a coalition withdrawal — none of which are shown here to satisfy the settlement pathway. Given the high-volatility regime and lack of concrete legislative action, the 8.9pp rise is plausibly a process-driven repricing rather than a clear overshoot; with no contradictory signals to override, the move is FAIR and not a strong mean-reversion short.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.