Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? ↗

Price rose 15.0pp from 66.5% to 81.5% over 5.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 77.5%, down 4.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 51.5%, 72h range: 43.0%-83.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump is physically in China on May 13, 2026; NO = he is not in China that day (arrives later/earlier or cancels). Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World.
Momentum check: E=0, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified).
Incremental only: E=0, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=1).
Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 66% to 82%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence: opposing (D) incremental signals = 2 (<3), so under the Extreme Volatility default the move stands. No ★ DIRECT confirmations of a May 13 presence were provided; instead, the clearest date-specific items point to a May 14–15 summit (CSIS, priced-in) and China–US preparatory talks in Seoul on “Wednesday” ahead of the summit (likely May 13), which would make a May 13 China presence less likely but do not meet the ≥3 contradicting-signal bar. Therefore the 15pp rise appears driven by broad confirmation/anticipation of the China trip rather than new date-specific evidence, and with insufficient opposing incremental signals in this high-volatility regime, the move is FAIR rather than an overreaction likely to revert.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.