Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ↗

Price fell 11.5pp from 31.0% to 19.5% over 44.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 21.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 5.0h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = the U.S. conducts a ground invasion of Iran before 2027; NO = no U.S. invasion by then. Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=5, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=5 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 31% to 20%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical Divergence: the drop matches de-escalatory momentum. ★ DIRECT items include paused U.S. operations/conditional halt of strikes in the Strait of Hormuz (D4), Iran publicly reviewing a new U.S. proposal and reporting of a one-page/draft framework being worked (D1/D2/D7), and mediator optimism/timelines from Pakistan and China (D5); by contrast, Trump’s “accept a deal or face more bombing” threats are about airstrikes, not an invasion, and do not meet invasion-specific criteria (no E7 “considering invasion,” no deployments toward ground entry). With multiple fresh D signals and zero invasion-specific E signals, plus theta-aligned time decay, the 11.5pp move is largely justified; modest bounce risk exists if talks stall, but baseline is FAIR.

Kill switches:
- U.S. President or Defense Secretary publicly says a ground invasion of Iran is on the table/under consideration, or details invasion contingencies.
- Confirmed orders to deploy additional U.S. Army/Marine combat brigades or an Amphibious Ready Group to the Gulf explicitly for potential operations in Iran.
- Congress passes or advances an AUMF explicitly authorizing use of force in Iran including ground operations.
- State Department orders evacuation of U.S. citizens or embassy staff in the region citing imminent U.S.-Iran ground conflict.
- Large-scale U.S. amphibious/airborne drills in the Gulf explicitly rehearsing landings into Iran.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.