Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗

Price fell 2.7pp from 19.4% to 16.7% over 1h (steady). Now at 16.7%.

Days to resolution: 251 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this short horizon since the deadline is well over 90 days away. Step 1a: There are no ★DIRECT news events during the window, only a CONTEXT event noting Gadi Eisenkot's rise in opposition leadership polling, which is not a direct signal for the Prime Ministership but does suggest increased political relevance. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming more likely), but the only news is contextually bullish for YES, as it shows Eisenkot gaining political momentum. News momentum is plateauing/starved—there is only one event, and it is not intensifying or a concrete action toward the PM role. Signal count: Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 16.7pp (from 16.7% to 0%). Step 3 hard rule check: RULE 1 (NEWS-TREND CONFLICT) applies—the only news is contextually positive for YES, while price moved DOWN (NO more likely), so the move is not supported by the news and must be STALL or REVERSE. No evidence for a reversal magnitude, so STALL is appropriate.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.