Starmer out by May 31, 2026? ↗

Price fell 12.5pp from 39.5% to 27.0% over 7.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 30.0%, up 3.0pp from trough, 2.0h after the trough. [Prior context: 72h range: 27.0%-69.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Starmer is out as PM/party leader by May 31, 2026; NO = he remains in office through May 31. Trend is DOWN (40% to 27%), pricing in the NO-World. 
Momentum check: E=2, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). 
Incremental only: E=2, D=0 (priced-in: E=2 — leadership challenge + mass calls to resign; D=1 — Catherine West backs down). 
Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 40% to 27%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
Logical Divergence: Weak divergence (some E opposing the drop), but not Strong (opposing count < 4). 
★ DIRECT actions were ministerial resignations (Jess Phillips; Alex Davies-Jones) that increase pressure but do not satisfy “out by May 31” and are process, not resolution; meanwhile Starmer’s “intends to remain” statements are rhetoric, and multiple mechanism pieces note ousting is procedurally difficult in the short window. Given the near-term deadline and theta-aligned move in an extreme-volatility regime without ≥3 opposing incremental signals, the 12.5pp drop is justified rather than an overreaction.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.