Iran closes its airspace by May 31? ↗

Price fell 6.4pp from 36.4% to 30.0% over 8.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 32.5%, up 2.5pp from trough, 10.0h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 29.5%, 72h range: 25.5%-38.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES=Iran issues an official NOTAM/order closing its national airspace to civilian traffic by May 31; NO=no such closure occurs. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=1). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 36% to 30%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Strong Divergence exists (only 2 opposing E signals), so the Theta Hard Rule applies; this near-term “by date” market’s drop is consistent with time-decay absent any ★ DIRECT airspace-specific trigger. There are no ★ DIRECT signs of an airspace closure (no NOTAMs, no Iranian official announcing closure or aviation restrictions); most items concern maritime tolls and broad diplomatic posturing, while one de-escalatory line (“no immediate danger,” Pakistan mediating) modestly supports the move. Given theta alignment and lack of closure-specific catalysts, the 6.4pp decline was justified by time decay rather than overreaction; any bounce should be limited absent fresh, direct airspace news.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.