US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? ↗

Price rose 16.0pp from 23.5% to 39.5% over 4h (spike). Now at 39.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 23.5%, 72h range: 12.5%-39.5%] [EVR: 72h range 27.0pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 23 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline within 90 days and a positive action is required), which would normally favor drift down absent news; here we do have a concrete de-escalatory action. The ★DIRECT news is ASYMMETRIC MIXED: the only confirmed action is the US pausing “Project Freedom” naval operations (a D4 de-escalation that plausibly raises near-term deal odds), while multiple counter items are verbal cautions/denials (“too soon,” “not nearing”) that are RHETORIC and count 0 under the rules. News momentum centers on that operational pause plus reports of Iran “reviewing” a US proposal (process steps that are EVIDENCE-tier but treated as NOISE for a “deal signed” market), which is enough for some follow-through in an extreme-volatility regime but not a surge. After clustering, distinct actionable events = 1 (pause of operations); Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Continuation forces: a concrete de-escalation aligned with market direction and broad risk-asset response; Reversal forces: theta-bleed and public caution from principals. Remaining space: 60.5pp. Hard-rule check: no news-trend conflict (Rule 1); mixed but ASYMMETRIC in favor of YES (Rule 3 applies → cap conviction to MEDIUM and move ≤5pp); Spike-exhaustion considered but presence of a concrete action prevents a REVERSE call.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.