Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? ↗

Price fell 5.7pp from 19.6% to 13.9% over 1h (spike). Now at 13.9%.

Days to resolution: 40 days. Election/leadership market — Theta: NEUTRAL. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES: a new, widely covered endorsement of Paloma Valencia by María Claudia Tarazona (widow of Miguel Uribe Turbay) boosts Paloma’s odds; the NO price dropping aligns with this. After clustering: 1 distinct event (Tarazona’s endorsement and Paloma’s response) from 8 articles; no fresh counter-signal appears in-window, while broader polling roundups from May 10 are stale relative to this move. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=1, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=2. Given this was a spike off a single catalyst, coverage surged but no additional concrete steps (new credible polls, major institutional endorsements) compounded it during the window, so near-term follow-through looks limited. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Remaining space: 13.9pp. Step 3 hard rules: No news–trend conflict (Rule 1); not balanced mixed (Rule 2); Rule 4 trigger-phrases apply (single-catalyst echo/limited follow-through), favoring STALL; Rule 5 spike-exhaustion does not force REVERSE since the catalyst is fresh.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.