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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Kash Patel out by June 30?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 0b6db687-1ed7-46aa-95af-525cf902d0a8
· signal: 15730a0e
· event: Kash Patel out by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● PHASE0 BLOCKED (no entry)
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+0.00
pnl %
+0.00%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES=Kash Patel is out (fired/resigns/removed) by June 30; NO=he remains in office on/after June 30. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=1—earlier “Trump stands by Patel”). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 54% to 76%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No Strong Diverge
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 104 | 0.3200 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 104 | 0.4228 | 0.4300 → 0.4228 (3 lvl) | TP | $+10.73 |
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.32, "size_usd": 33.4, "target_price": 0.4204, "stop_price": 0.2096, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.55, "yes_ask": 0.57, "yes_mid": 0.56, "yes_spread_pp": 2.0, "walk_levels_used": 3, "walk_top_fill": 0.43, "walk_top_size": 35.05, "walk_filled_shares": 104.38, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.4228, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.72, "side_bid_top": 0.43, "side_bid": 0.4228, "side_mid": 0.44, "fill_price": 0.4228, "fill_shares": 104.38, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 104.38, "target_price": 0.4204, "stop_price": 0.2096, "entry_price": 0.32, "original_size_shares": 104.375, "fill_pnl_pct": 32.12, "fill_pnl_usd": 10.7298, "pnl_pct_mid": 37.5, "pnl_pct_top": 34.38, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 0.24, "fill_id": "21e4b838-c0ac-48a7-ab17-a40a0dcf97ad"}