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○ CLOSED · BUY_YES
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 2104fffd-2f4e-48ee-8e33-d8af50d03171
· signal: abaa33af
· event: California Governor Election Winner
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
PHASE4 MFE GIVEBACK
resolves
prices (BUY_YES frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-0.34
pnl %
-0.85%
decision context
direction: UP
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: UNDERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Steyer wins the 2026 California governor election; NO = he does not. Trend is DOWN (44% → 33%), pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: DOWN (from 44% to 33%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline No Logical Divergence count exists (no ★ DIRECT signa
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.353, "size_usd": 40.0, "target_price": 0.4212, "stop_price": 0.2828, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.422, "yes_ask": 0.426, "yes_mid": 0.424, "yes_spread_pp": 0.4, "walk_levels_used": 2, "walk_top_fill": 0.422, "walk_top_size": 35.05, "walk_filled_shares": 113.31, "walk_avg_fill": 0.4213, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.07, "side_bid_top": 0.422, "side_bid": 0.4213, "side_mid": 0.424, "exit_price": 0.4213, "target_price": 0.4212, "stop_price": 0.2828, "entry_price": 0.353, "size_shares": 113.31444759206799, "pnl_pct": 19.35, "pnl_usd": 7.7394, "pnl_pct_mid": 20.11, "pnl_pct_top": 19.55, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 0.01}