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○ CLOSED · BUY_YES

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · polymarket ↗
position_id: 244cf50f-528d-4a02-b120-0187ccfb282d · signal: b94432eb · event: Venezuela leader end of 2026?
entered
signal:
exited
reason: IDLE TIME CAPPED
resolves

prices (BUY_YES frame)

entry
target
stop
exit
size
$—
pnl $
$+22.58
pnl %
+21.05%

decision context

direction: UP conviction: MEDIUM opportunity: LARGE broker: paper

Assessment: UNDERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Delcy Rodríguez remains/holds the top leadership of Venezuela at end-2026; NO = she is replaced/loses office by then. Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=0 (priced-in: E=1, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: UP Price move direction: DOWN (from 34% to 16%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: UP — opposed Logical Divergence: Price fel

fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl

when type shares price walk top → avg reason pnl $
OPEN 565 0.1900 OPEN $+0.00
CLOSE 565 0.2300 0.2300 → 0.2300 (1 lvl) IDLE_TIME_CAPPED $+22.58

re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it

TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines primarily reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing context of Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would change the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's leadership position.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would change the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's leadership position.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing context of Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing context of Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing context of Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing context of Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would change the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would change the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's leadership position.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing context of Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing context of Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing context of Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Delcy Rodríguez's leadership or political situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Delcy Rodríguez's leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would change the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Delcy Rodríguez's ongoing diplomatic activities without introducing new information that would impact her leadership status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would change the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's leadership position.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of Delcy Rodríguez's position or influence in Venezuela.

event timeline

ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.19, "size_usd": 107.26, "target_price": 0.2968, "stop_price": 0.0732, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.23, "yes_ask": 0.24, "yes_mid": 0.235, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.23, "walk_top_size": 3733.09, "walk_filled_shares": 564.53, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.23, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.23, "side_bid": 0.23, "side_mid": 0.235, "fill_price": 0.23, "fill_shares": 564.53, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 564.53, "target_price": 0.2968, "stop_price": 0.0732, "entry_price": 0.19, "original_size_shares": 564.5263157894738, "fill_pnl_pct": 21.05, "fill_pnl_usd": 22.5811, "pnl_pct_mid": 23.68, "pnl_pct_top": 21.05, "trigger_vs_level_pp": null, "mfe_drift_pp": 4.0, "current_drift_pp": 4.0, "hours_held": 197.61, "fill_id": "1e457f7d-1544-4cb4-8f89-0e0d971edd5e"}