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○ CLOSED · BUY_YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 260f0ecf-df63-43b1-bf45-01656eda1463
· signal: 329e2d26
· event: Brazil Presidential Election
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● TAKE PROFIT
resolves
prices (BUY_YES frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+20.35
pnl %
+20.35%
decision context
direction: UP
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM UP — anchor→trigger: 37.5% → 40.4% over 1h, cusum=3.841. Days to resolution: 159 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this short horizon, as the deadline is well over 90 days away. The ★DIRECT news ("Bolsonaro’s son runs for president with a mission: Get dad out of prison") is a high-quality, concrete confirmation that Flávio Bolsonaro is indeed running f
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 248 | 0.4030 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 248 | 0.4850 | 0.4850 → 0.4850 (1 lvl) | TP | $+20.35 |
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.403, "size_usd": 100.0, "target_price": 0.454, "stop_price": 0.343, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_PARTIAL
{"yes_bid": 0.01, "yes_ask": 0.99, "yes_mid": 0.5, "yes_spread_pp": 98.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.01, "walk_top_size": 100.0, "walk_filled_shares": 100.0, "walk_unfilled_shares": 148.14, "walk_avg_fill": 0.01, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.01, "side_bid": 0.01, "side_mid": 0.5, "fill_price": 0.01, "fill_shares": 100.0, "is_partial": true, "remaining_before": 248.14, "target_price": 0.454, "stop_price": 0.343, "entry_price": 0.403, "original_size_shares": 248.13895781637714, "fill_pnl_pct": -97.52, "fill_pnl_usd": -39.3, "pnl_pct_mid": 24.07, "pnl_pct_top": -97.52, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -33.3, "fill_id": "dd18de8c-c588-4e8a-b415-16d915d2aa0e"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.485, "yes_ask": 0.515, "yes_mid": 0.5, "yes_spread_pp": 3.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.485, "walk_top_size": 404.0, "walk_filled_shares": 148.14, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.485, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.485, "side_bid": 0.485, "side_mid": 0.5, "fill_price": 0.485, "fill_shares": 148.14, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 148.14, "target_price": 0.454, "stop_price": 0.343, "entry_price": 0.403, "original_size_shares": 248.13895781637714, "fill_pnl_pct": 20.35, "fill_pnl_usd": 12.1474, "pnl_pct_mid": 24.07, "pnl_pct_top": 20.35, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 3.1, "fill_id": "a4d4078b-1189-44c0-a16f-e72fadb2afc6"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.485, "yes_ask": 0.515, "yes_mid": 0.5, "yes_spread_pp": 3.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.485, "walk_top_size": 404.0, "walk_filled_shares": 248.14, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.485, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.485, "side_bid": 0.485, "side_mid": 0.5, "fill_price": 0.485, "fill_shares": 248.14, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 248.14, "target_price": 0.454, "stop_price": 0.343, "entry_price": 0.403, "original_size_shares": 248.13895781637714, "fill_pnl_pct": 20.35, "fill_pnl_usd": 20.3474, "pnl_pct_mid": 24.07, "pnl_pct_top": 20.35, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 3.1, "fill_id": "2623275b-dfa4-4b75-b0f1-867dbfe216f1"}