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○ CLOSED · BUY_YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 2df6a237-2faa-4e6a-aef7-df9785a303b2
· signal: 94d7a641
· event: Which party will win the House in 2026?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● VERDICT FLIP
resolves
prices (BUY_YES frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-3.16
pnl %
-1.27%
decision context
direction: UP
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: UNDERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES=Democrats hold a majority of House seats after the 2026 midterms; NO=Republicans (or neither via coalition) control instead. Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=1 (R=0 unverified) — the sole substantive development is a Virginia Supreme Court ruling undermining Democrats’ redistricting effort. Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0); the Virginia ruling is one institution
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 316 | 0.7900 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 316 | 0.7800 | 0.7800 → 0.7800 (1 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $-3.16 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on the UK Labour Party and do not provide relevant information about the Democratic Party's chances in the 2026 Midterm elections.
evidence news (10 items · score 5.17 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-07T22:49 [The Boston Globe] Trump's affordability push stalls ahead of midterm elections
- 2026-05-08T07:03 [The Guardian] Labour's disastrous night puts focus on Keir Starmer's future as leader
- 2026-05-08T08:00 [The Guardian] Keir Starmer’s leadership on line after Labour’s disastrous election night - The Guardian
- 2026-05-08T10:03 [inews.co.uk] Should Keir Starmer resign? The i Paper experts' verdict
- 2026-05-08T10:20 [The Times] Who will win the 2026 midterm elections? Polls and predictions - The Times
- 2026-05-08T11:14 [The Independent] Voters have not only rejected Starmer but the leadership challengers to his crown
- 2026-05-08T11:47 [International Busi] Keir Starmer's Future as PM Hangs by a Thread as Labour Haemorrhages Council Seats Across the UK
- 2026-05-08T12:23 [AOL.com] 'Starmer has failed': Telegraph readers call for Starmer to resign - AOL
- 2026-05-08T19:00 [The American Prosp] An Epic Collapse for Britain’s Labour Party - The American Prospect
- 2026-05-08T19:00 [The American Prosp] An Epic Collapse for Britain’s Labour Party - The American Prospect
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on the UK Labour Party and do not provide relevant information about the Democratic Party's chances in the 2026 Midterm elections.
evidence news (10 items · score 5.17 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-07T22:49 [The Boston Globe] Trump's affordability push stalls ahead of midterm elections
- 2026-05-08T07:03 [The Guardian] Labour's disastrous night puts focus on Keir Starmer's future as leader
- 2026-05-08T08:00 [The Guardian] Keir Starmer’s leadership on line after Labour’s disastrous election night - The Guardian
- 2026-05-08T10:03 [inews.co.uk] Should Keir Starmer resign? The i Paper experts' verdict
- 2026-05-08T10:20 [The Times] Who will win the 2026 midterm elections? Polls and predictions - The Times
- 2026-05-08T11:14 [The Independent] Voters have not only rejected Starmer but the leadership challengers to his crown
- 2026-05-08T11:47 [International Busi] Keir Starmer's Future as PM Hangs by a Thread as Labour Haemorrhages Council Seats Across the UK
- 2026-05-08T12:23 [AOL.com] 'Starmer has failed': Telegraph readers call for Starmer to resign - AOL
- 2026-05-08T19:00 [The American Prosp] An Epic Collapse for Britain’s Labour Party - The American Prospect
- 2026-05-08T19:00 [The American Prosp] An Epic Collapse for Britain’s Labour Party - The American Prospect
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative about the Democratic Party's chances in the House.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative about the Democratic Party's chances in the House.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative about the Democratic Party's chances in the House.
TIME_BACKSTOP
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New headlines could indicate shifts in public sentiment or candidate dynamics that may impact the Democratic Party's chances in the House.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
/ MEDIUM
· FAIR
flipped & exited: fill=0.78 shares=316.4556962025316 pnl=$-3.1646
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.79, "size_usd": 250.0, "target_price": 0.815, "stop_price": 0.755, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.78, "yes_ask": 0.79, "yes_mid": 0.785, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.78, "walk_top_size": 7482.63, "walk_filled_shares": 316.46, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.78, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.78, "side_bid": 0.78, "side_mid": 0.785, "fill_price": 0.78, "fill_shares": 316.46, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 316.46, "force_exit_reason": "VERDICT_FLIP", "force_exit_notes": "reeval[809718ee] entry=YES/MEDIUM new=OMIT/MEDIUM", "entry_price": 0.79, "original_size_shares": 316.4556962025316, "fill_id": "165b19a5-c0a1-4009-8587-6f023ccf4a64"}