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● OPEN · BUY_YES
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 3154f8c1-e660-4e73-9ef8-3221e4a4c292
· signal: e6724245
· event: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
entered
signal:
exited
still open
resolves
prices (BUY_YES frame)
entry
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target
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size
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decision context
direction: UP
conviction: HIGH
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: UNDERPRICED Conviction: HIGH Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Bennett becomes the next Prime Minister of Israel by end-2026; NO = someone else becomes PM next. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: DOWN (from 40% to 28%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — election/leadership (no theta hard rule) No Logic
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 254 | 0.3300 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate ongoing tensions and developments in the Iran conflict, which could impact Netanyahu's political standing and influence Bennett's chances.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ HIGH
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/HIGH new=YES/HIGH
evidence news (10 items · score 4.01 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-09T13:22 [The Jerusalem Post] The illusion of a sovereign Lebanon: Why past agreements keep collapsing - analysis
- 2026-05-11T01:04 [LatestLY] World News | Prime Minister Netanyahu's Party Loses Court Challenge Against Former PM Naftali Bennett | LatestLY
- 2026-05-11T01:26 [ExBulletin] Netanyahu says Iran war 'not over'; Trump rejects his latest offer - ExBulletin
- 2026-05-11T01:49 [LatestLY] Oil Prices Jump Nearly 4% as US-Iran Nuclear Talks Stall, Benjamin Netanyahu Says Conflict 'Not Over' | LatestLY
- 2026-05-11T02:32 [Economic Times] Oil Price Today (May 11): Crude oil back above $100 on no breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks. What are experts saying?
- 2026-05-11T04:28 [The Link News Pape] Did Netanyahu sell US an 'easy' Iran war, misread Hormuz risks? Israel PM says 'nobody had perfect foresight' - Link Newspaper
- 2026-05-11T10:00 [Yahoo] Trump Insists Iran Is 'Defeated' as U.S. Seeks Deal and Israel Says War 'Not Over'
- 2026-05-11T10:46 [Arise News] Oil Jumps 40% As Netanyahu Warns Iran War Far From Over, Trump Rejects Tehran Proposal
- 2026-05-11T14:20 [The Jerusalem Post] Levin's refusal to meet with Supreme Court harms Israeli public, judiciary, AG argues
- 2026-05-11T18:53 [Military] Netanyahu's First Interview Since Iran War Began: 'More Work to be Done'
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate ongoing tensions and developments in the Iran conflict, which could impact Netanyahu's political standing and influence Bennett's chances.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/HIGH new=YES/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 4.01 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-09T13:22 [The Jerusalem Post] The illusion of a sovereign Lebanon: Why past agreements keep collapsing - analysis
- 2026-05-11T01:04 [LatestLY] World News | Prime Minister Netanyahu's Party Loses Court Challenge Against Former PM Naftali Bennett | LatestLY
- 2026-05-11T01:26 [ExBulletin] Netanyahu says Iran war 'not over'; Trump rejects his latest offer - ExBulletin
- 2026-05-11T01:49 [LatestLY] Oil Prices Jump Nearly 4% as US-Iran Nuclear Talks Stall, Benjamin Netanyahu Says Conflict 'Not Over' | LatestLY
- 2026-05-11T02:32 [Economic Times] Oil Price Today (May 11): Crude oil back above $100 on no breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks. What are experts saying?
- 2026-05-11T04:28 [The Link News Pape] Did Netanyahu sell US an 'easy' Iran war, misread Hormuz risks? Israel PM says 'nobody had perfect foresight' - Link Newspaper
- 2026-05-11T10:00 [Yahoo] Trump Insists Iran Is 'Defeated' as U.S. Seeks Deal and Israel Says War 'Not Over'
- 2026-05-11T10:46 [Arise News] Oil Jumps 40% As Netanyahu Warns Iran War Far From Over, Trump Rejects Tehran Proposal
- 2026-05-11T14:20 [The Jerusalem Post] Levin's refusal to meet with Supreme Court harms Israeli public, judiciary, AG argues
- 2026-05-11T18:53 [Military] Netanyahu's First Interview Since Iran War Began: 'More Work to be Done'
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline about Trump rejecting the Iran peace proposal does not directly impact Naftali Bennett's candidacy or the Israeli political landscape.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.30 )
- 2026-05-11T21:10 [Crypto Briefing] Trump rejects Iran peace proposal, impacting US-Iran nuclear deal prospects
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and do not provide any new information regarding Naftali Bennett or the Israeli political landscape.
evidence news (3 items · score 1.17 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-12T10:12 [NBC News] Londoners pessimistic about Prime Minister Starmer's future - NBC News
- 2026-05-12T11:34 [see.news] UK Minister Resigns as Starmer Rejects Calls to Step Down | Sada Elbalad
- 2026-05-12T12:31 [MyJoyOnline.com] UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer grapples with leadership crisis amid growing calls to quit - MyJoyOnline
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline is unrelated to Naftali Bennett and does not impact the information regarding his potential as Prime Minister of Israel.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.54 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-12T10:12 [NBC News] Londoners pessimistic about Prime Minister Starmer's future - NBC News
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline about Prime Minister Starmer does not relate to Naftali Bennett or the Israeli political context, thus it does not change the information picture.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.54 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-12T14:43 [NBC News] Londoners pessimistic about Prime Minister Starmer's future - NBC News
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate an imminent government collapse, which could significantly impact Bennett's chances of becoming Prime Minister.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/HIGH new=YES/MEDIUM
evidence news (2 items · score 1.27 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-12T18:43 [NPR] Israel's government is expected to collapse over ultra-Orthodox military draft - NPR
- 2026-05-12T18:47 [english.punjabkesa] Israel Govt on Brink: Ultra-Orthodox Draft Dispute Threatens Collapse - english.punjabkesari.com
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a potential government collapse, which could significantly impact Bennett's chances of becoming Prime Minister.
stage2_throttled_E:within_2.0h_AND_trigger_HARD_TIER1_eligible|trigger=HARD_TIER1|last=YES/MEDIUM|age=0.277h
evidence news (2 items · score 1.27 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-12T18:43 [NPR] Israel's government is expected to collapse over ultra-Orthodox military draft - NPR
- 2026-05-12T18:47 [english.punjabkesa] Israel Govt on Brink: Ultra-Orthodox Draft Dispute Threatens Collapse - english.punjabkesari.com
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline is unrelated to the Israeli political situation and does not impact the context of Naftali Bennett's candidacy.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.24 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-13T14:32 [Yahoo] Nebraska secretary of state loses GOP primary to challenger questioning election security
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The expectation of the government's collapse introduces significant uncertainty that could impact Bennett's chances of becoming Prime Minister.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/HIGH new=YES/MEDIUM
evidence news (1 items · score 0.82 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-12T18:43 [NPR] Israel's government is expected to collapse over ultra-Orthodox military draft - NPR
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The expectation of the government's collapse introduces significant uncertainty that could impact Bennett's chances of becoming Prime Minister.
stage2_throttled_E:within_2.0h_AND_trigger_HARD_TIER1_eligible|trigger=HARD_TIER1|last=YES/MEDIUM|age=0.32h
evidence news (1 items · score 0.82 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-12T18:43 [NPR] Israel's government is expected to collapse over ultra-Orthodox military draft - NPR
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0000$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about Bennett's political status.
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.33, "size_usd": 83.9, "target_price": 0.389, "stop_price": 0.261, "broker": "paper"}