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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 337d1ca4-5611-460c-a3eb-994d8d653d1d
· signal: e36b9d25
· event: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● TAKE PROFIT
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+2.80
pnl %
+5.61%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = a U.S. ground invasion/entry into Iranian territory before end-2026; NO = no U.S. invasion (airstrikes/blockade/threats/talks do not satisfy “invade”). Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 30% to 38%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN —
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.66, "size_usd": 50.0, "target_price": 0.697, "stop_price": 0.613, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_midpoint": 0.3, "side_price": 0.7, "exit_price": 0.697, "target_price": 0.697, "stop_price": 0.613, "entry_price": 0.66, "size_shares": 75.75757575757575, "pnl_pct": 5.61, "pnl_usd": 2.803, "observed_slippage_pp": 0.3}