○ CLOSED · BUY_NO

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? · polymarket ↗

position_id: 4608dd17-8561-47fa-8d69-02dd194bbdff · signal: f6f58ea5 · event: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

entered

2026-04-21T18:59:19

signal: 2026-04-21T18:59:13

exited

2026-04-22T10:04:12

reason: PHASE4 MFE GIVEBACK

resolves

2026-06-30

prices (BUY_NO frame)

entry

—

target

—

stop

—

exit

—

size

$—

pnl $

$+0.94

pnl %

+6.25%

decision context

direction: DOWN conviction: MEDIUM opportunity: MEDIUM broker: paper

MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 61.5% → 53.0% over 12h, cusum=-4.298. Days to resolution: 69 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market requires a positive action (Iran agreeing to end enrichment by June 30), the deadline is within 90 days, and the trend is DOWN, so absence of progress is bearish for YES. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news overwhelmingly supports the NO side—near

event timeline

2026-04-21T18:59:19

ENTRY

{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.48, "size_usd": 15.0, "target_price": 0.538, "stop_price": 0.42, "broker": "paper"}

2026-04-23T03:33:36

EXIT_SIGNAL

{"yes_midpoint": 0.455, "side_price": 0.545, "exit_price": 0.538, "target_price": 0.538, "stop_price": 0.42, "entry_price": 0.48, "size_shares": 31.25, "pnl_pct": 12.08, "pnl_usd": 1.8125, "observed_slippage_pp": 0.7}