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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 5ec80a13-0baa-4e65-bced-3122755cc7f7
· signal: 3b2f03d9
· event: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● VERDICT FLIP
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-0.29
pnl %
-1.47%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES=Iran formally agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30; NO=No such agreement by then. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 27% to 34%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No Strong Divergence: the move is mostly supported by proces
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 29 | 0.6800 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 29 | 0.6700 | 0.6700 → 0.6700 (1 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $-0.29 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The confirmation of positive discussions and Iran's commitment to end uranium enrichment could significantly impact market sentiment and trading positions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 41.77 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-03T19:25 [Yeni Şafak] Syrian, Egyptian foreign ministers hold talks in Cairo on first official visit
- 2026-05-03T21:32 [Daily Times] Iranian envoy reaffirms Pakistan's 'central role' in ongoing talks
- 2026-05-03T21:59 [english.news.cn] Egypt, Syria discuss regional escalation, U.S.-Iranian negotiations
- 2026-05-03T22:21 [CNA] Trump calls Iran talks 'very positive,' US to 'guide' ships through Hormuz
- 2026-05-03T23:20 [Asian News Interna] Trump says US in "very positive discussions" with Iran as negotiations continue
- 2026-05-03T23:23 [The Santa Barbara ] Morro Bay Offshore Wind Project Dead in Water After Company Ends Lease
- 2026-05-04T02:47 [Arutz Sheva Israel] Witkoff: US in active talks with Iran to end war
- 2026-05-04T09:00 [CCN - Capital & Ce] CLARITY Act Revived? Coinbase Backs Senate Deal on Stablecoin Rewards
- 2026-05-04T11:48 [وكاله عمون الاخبار] Ammonnews : Jordan, Lebanon and Syria reach gas exchange agreement
- 2026-05-04T12:05 [anews] Iran hangs three men over January protests in execution wave
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The confirmation of positive discussions and Iran's commitment to end uranium enrichment could significantly impact market sentiment and trading positions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 44.38 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-03T19:25 [Yeni Şafak] Syrian, Egyptian foreign ministers hold talks in Cairo on first official visit
- 2026-05-03T21:32 [Daily Times] Iranian envoy reaffirms Pakistan's 'central role' in ongoing talks
- 2026-05-03T21:59 [english.news.cn] Egypt, Syria discuss regional escalation, U.S.-Iranian negotiations
- 2026-05-03T22:21 [CNA] Trump calls Iran talks 'very positive,' US to 'guide' ships through Hormuz
- 2026-05-03T23:20 [Asian News Interna] Trump says US in "very positive discussions" with Iran as negotiations continue
- 2026-05-03T23:23 [The Santa Barbara ] Morro Bay Offshore Wind Project Dead in Water After Company Ends Lease
- 2026-05-04T02:47 [Arutz Sheva Israel] Witkoff: US in active talks with Iran to end war
- 2026-05-04T09:00 [CCN - Capital & Ce] CLARITY Act Revived? Coinbase Backs Senate Deal on Stablecoin Rewards
- 2026-05-04T11:48 [وكاله عمون الاخبار] Ammonnews : Jordan, Lebanon and Syria reach gas exchange agreement
- 2026-05-04T12:05 [anews] Iran hangs three men over January protests in execution wave
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The mention of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30 introduces a significant new development that could impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage2_error:analyzer_failed:(sqlite3.OperationalError) database is locked
[SQL:
INSERT INTO llm_analyses (
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assessment, conviction, opportunity, action, override_applied,
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caps_applied_json, conviction_capped, opportunity_capped,
prompt_version, model_name, tokens_used, cost_usd,
kill_list_json
) VALUES (
?, ?, ?, ?,
?, ?, ?,
?, ?, ?, ?, ?,
?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?,
?, ?, ?,
?, ?, ?, ?,
?
)
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(Background on this error at: https://sqlalche.me/e/20/e3q8)
evidence news (7 items · score 2.75 )
- 2026-05-06T11:56 [protothemanews.com] "Relief" for global bonds amid optimism over a US-Iran peace deal - ProtoThema English
- 2026-05-06T12:39 [Palestine Chronicl] US-Iran Framework Talks Progress as Tehran Denies Active Nuclear Negotiations - Palestine Chronicle
- 2026-05-06T13:44 [Al-Monitor] Iran, China discuss Hormuz reopening amid potential US-Iran talks
- 2026-05-06T14:46 [Al-Monitor] Lebanon, Israel eye third round of talks, but no Netanyahu-Aoun meeting in sight
- 2026-05-06T15:36 [mishtalk.com] Trump Threatens to Resume Epic Fury, Axios Reports a Framework for a Deal
- 2026-05-06T15:51 [RTL Today] 'Very good and constructive talks in terms of form': PM Luc Frieden satisfied with tripartite preparations
- 2026-05-06T15:57 [NEO TV | Voice of ] Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi hails 'constructive' talks with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: Iran's agreement to end uranium enrichment by June 30 represents a significant development that could impact negotiations and market sentiment.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: Iran's agreement to end uranium enrichment by June 30 represents a significant development that could impact negotiations and market sentiment.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
/ MEDIUM
· FAIR
flipped & exited: fill=0.67 shares=29.41176470588235 pnl=$-0.2941
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.68, "size_usd": 20.0, "target_price": 0.718, "stop_price": 0.632, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.32, "yes_ask": 0.33, "yes_mid": 0.325, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.67, "walk_top_size": 118.44, "walk_filled_shares": 29.41, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.67, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.67, "side_bid": 0.67, "side_mid": 0.675, "fill_price": 0.67, "fill_shares": 29.41, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 29.41, "force_exit_reason": "VERDICT_FLIP", "force_exit_notes": "reeval[34fc7aee] entry=NO/MEDIUM new=OMIT/MEDIUM", "entry_price": 0.68, "original_size_shares": 29.41176470588235, "fill_id": "c8d2b8c7-f22c-4883-99dd-b48e9ca4cb14"}