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○ CLOSED · BUY_YES
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 666069a9-0122-4dda-8c67-7069c8627b63
· signal: 7591d769
· event: West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
PHASE4 MFE GIVEBACK
resolves
prices (BUY_YES frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-1.80
pnl %
-4.49%
decision context
direction: UP
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: UNDERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = BJP wins the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Assembly; NO = TMC/another party wins more seats. Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: DOWN (from 57% to 50%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline. No Logical Divergence or Strong Diverge
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.523, "size_usd": 40.0, "target_price": 0.5553, "stop_price": 0.466, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_midpoint": 0.4625, "side_price": 0.4625, "exit_price": 0.466, "target_price": 0.5553, "stop_price": 0.466, "entry_price": 0.523, "size_shares": 76.48183556405354, "pnl_pct": -10.9, "pnl_usd": -4.3595, "observed_slippage_pp": -0.35}