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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 70ff794b-de89-4402-9915-eb6c8441b6a4
· signal: 30c940ff
· event: Los Angeles Mayoral Election
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● STOP LOSS
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-0.70
pnl %
-6.02%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Spencer Pratt wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election; NO = he does not. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: UP (from 14% to 20%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline No Strong Divergence: the rise is unsupported by any verified
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 14 | 0.8300 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 14 | 0.7800 | 0.7800 → 0.7800 (1 lvl) | SL | $-0.70 |
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.83, "size_usd": 11.69, "target_price": 0.855, "stop_price": 0.795, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.19, "yes_ask": 0.22, "yes_mid": 0.205, "yes_spread_pp": 3.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.78, "walk_top_size": 60.0, "walk_filled_shares": 14.08, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.78, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.78, "side_bid": 0.78, "side_mid": 0.795, "fill_price": 0.78, "fill_shares": 14.08, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 14.08, "target_price": 0.855, "stop_price": 0.795, "entry_price": 0.83, "original_size_shares": 14.08433734939759, "fill_pnl_pct": -6.02, "fill_pnl_usd": -0.7042, "pnl_pct_mid": -4.22, "pnl_pct_top": -6.02, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -1.5, "mfe_drift_pp": 0.0, "current_drift_pp": -5.0, "hours_held": 0.48, "fill_id": "78fac483-7b41-44b5-8315-cd55114cdde0"}