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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 8f489a07-b654-499f-93fd-2920de12d983
· signal: 044206c1
· event: California Governor Election Winner
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● STOP LOSS
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-3.17
pnl %
-6.33%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Becerra gains structurally (fresh strong polls for him, key rivals drop/endorse, party consolidation, primary win momentum); NO = rivals lead, Dems fractured, Republicans advantaged. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=4, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=1, D=3). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: UP (from 17% to 25%) Ali
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.788, "size_usd": 50.0, "target_price": 0.8309, "stop_price": 0.7381, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_midpoint": 0.272, "side_price": 0.728, "target_price": 0.8309, "stop_price": 0.7381, "entry_price": 0.788, "pnl_pct": -7.61}