← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: acda6f64-5398-4607-9c02-b0d7cddc543a
· signal: 1106ae0f
· event: Which party will win the House in 2026?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● VERDICT FLIP
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-3.16
pnl %
-1.27%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES=Republicans win House control after the 2026 midterms; NO=Democrats retain/secure control. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: UP (from 16% to 24%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — election outcome market (no theta alignment) No Strong Diverg
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 316 | 0.7900 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 316 | 0.7800 | 0.7800 → 0.7800 (1 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $-3.16 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on unrelated topics such as Iran negotiations and tech industry disputes, which do not impact the Republican Party's control of the House.
evidence news (10 items · score 3.61 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-06T07:42 [The Hans India] OpenAI Trial: Greg Brockman Pushes Back on Musk Claims, Defends AI Leadership Decisions
- 2026-05-06T08:48 [Digit] Musk tried to control OpenAI and nearly hit us, says Greg Brockman in court
- 2026-05-06T10:01 [scheerpost.com] Trump's New Iran Negotiator Is Israel Lobbyist Who Denounced Negotiations With Iran
- 2026-05-06T11:45 [Daily Times] PM Shehbaz hopes Iran US talks bring peace - Daily Times
- 2026-05-06T14:05 [From the Trenches ] Trump's new Iran negotiator is Israel lobbyist who denounced negotiations with Iran | From the Trenches World Report
- 2026-05-06T16:27 [HotAir] BREAKING: FBI Raids Office of VA Legislative Leader Behind Redistricting Referendum
- 2026-05-06T22:14 [Financial Times Ne] Elon Musk tried to recruit Sam Altman for role at Tesla before falling out at OpenAI
- 2026-05-07T11:54 [bankingnews.gr] Brutal backstage maneuvers: Scenarios for a US-Iran deal involving Hormuz opening and lifting of naval blockade - Trump at an impasse, searching for victory
- 2026-05-07T20:39 [Internewscast Jour] Keir Starmer Confronts Pivotal Challenge as Discontent Rises Within Labour Party - Internewscast Journal
- 2026-05-08T00:00 [President of Russi] Greetings to leaders and citizens of foreign states on the 81st anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on unrelated topics such as Iran negotiations and tech industry disputes, which do not impact the Republican Party's control of the House.
evidence news (10 items · score 3.61 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-06T07:42 [The Hans India] OpenAI Trial: Greg Brockman Pushes Back on Musk Claims, Defends AI Leadership Decisions
- 2026-05-06T08:48 [Digit] Musk tried to control OpenAI and nearly hit us, says Greg Brockman in court
- 2026-05-06T10:01 [scheerpost.com] Trump's New Iran Negotiator Is Israel Lobbyist Who Denounced Negotiations With Iran
- 2026-05-06T11:45 [Daily Times] PM Shehbaz hopes Iran US talks bring peace - Daily Times
- 2026-05-06T14:05 [From the Trenches ] Trump's new Iran negotiator is Israel lobbyist who denounced negotiations with Iran | From the Trenches World Report
- 2026-05-06T16:27 [HotAir] BREAKING: FBI Raids Office of VA Legislative Leader Behind Redistricting Referendum
- 2026-05-06T22:14 [Financial Times Ne] Elon Musk tried to recruit Sam Altman for role at Tesla before falling out at OpenAI
- 2026-05-07T11:54 [bankingnews.gr] Brutal backstage maneuvers: Scenarios for a US-Iran deal involving Hormuz opening and lifting of naval blockade - Trump at an impasse, searching for victory
- 2026-05-07T20:39 [Internewscast Jour] Keir Starmer Confronts Pivotal Challenge as Discontent Rises Within Labour Party - Internewscast Journal
- 2026-05-08T00:00 [President of Russi] Greetings to leaders and citizens of foreign states on the 81st anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War
TIME_BACKSTOP
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines introduce significant developments regarding court rulings and redistricting that could impact election outcomes and party control.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
/ MEDIUM
· FAIR
flipped & exited: fill=0.78 shares=316.4556962025316 pnl=$-3.1646
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.79, "size_usd": 250.0, "target_price": 0.99, "stop_price": 0.54, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.21, "yes_ask": 0.22, "yes_mid": 0.215, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.78, "walk_top_size": 31155.57, "walk_filled_shares": 316.46, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.78, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.78, "side_bid": 0.78, "side_mid": 0.785, "fill_price": 0.78, "fill_shares": 316.46, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 316.46, "force_exit_reason": "VERDICT_FLIP", "force_exit_notes": "reeval[20ebde53] entry=NO/MEDIUM new=OMIT/MEDIUM", "entry_price": 0.79, "original_size_shares": 316.4556962025316, "fill_id": "144eac09-a233-4e3a-b0bf-16ed63e95d1c"}