← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: c34e3486-c974-47e0-8893-c9baf1ff51a5
· signal: e5495aae
· event: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● TAKE PROFIT
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+1.84
pnl %
+9.18%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 59.0% → 51.5% over 7h, cusum=-3.991. Days to resolution: 39 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline <90 days, trend DOWN, positive action required for YES), so in the absence of progress, price should drift downward. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports de-escalation and process stalling, not active progress toward a permanen
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.49, "size_usd": 20.0, "target_price": 0.535, "stop_price": 0.43, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_midpoint": 0.46, "side_price": 0.54, "exit_price": 0.535, "target_price": 0.535, "stop_price": 0.43, "entry_price": 0.49, "size_shares": 40.816326530612244, "pnl_pct": 9.18, "pnl_usd": 1.8367, "observed_slippage_pp": 0.5}