◢ pm_agent
free sign in →
← all positions

● OPEN · BUY_YES

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? · polymarket ↗
position_id: fcade73c-503e-4821-8193-f2b28d1857d7 · signal: acc56377 · event: Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
entered
signal:
exited
still open
resolves

prices (BUY_YES frame)

entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
—
pnl %
—

decision context

direction: UP conviction: MEDIUM opportunity: LARGE broker: paper

Assessment: UNDERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Musk secures a favorable legal outcome (wins the case); NO = Musk does not win (Altman/OpenAI prevail or outcome otherwise unfavorable to Musk). Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: DOWN (from 42% to 29%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — n

fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl

when type shares price walk top → avg reason pnl $
OPEN 387 0.3200 — OPEN $+0.00

re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it

CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on unrelated political topics and do not provide new information about the trial between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
evidence news (10 items · score 7.42 · tier-1 source)
  • 2026-05-10T12:46 [News Directory 3] Keir Starmer Rejects Resignation Calls After Labour Local Election Losses - News Directory 3
  • 2026-05-11T01:37 [The New Indian Exp] 'Totally unacceptable': Trump rejects Iran's response to US ceasefire proposal
  • 2026-05-11T04:39 [Yahoo News] Trump's War On Iran Reveals 'America's Failure': The Atlantic
  • 2026-05-11T10:00 [Yahoo] Trump Insists Iran Is 'Defeated' as U.S. Seeks Deal and Israel Says War 'Not Over'
  • 2026-05-11T21:18 [Middle East Eye] Qatar, Kuwait urge diplomacy to sustain US-Iran ceasefire
  • 2026-05-12T10:01 [NEWS.am STYLE] Billionaire's Girlfriend Fires Back: "If I Could Control Him, I'd Already Be Married With a Baby
  • 2026-05-12T10:04 [CNA] OpenAI chief Altman denies Elon Musk's claim he betrayed ChatGPT maker's mission
  • 2026-05-12T10:14 [Tehran Times] Iran sets five conditions for nuclear talks
  • 2026-05-12T10:41 [Asian News Interna] "Country expects us to get on with governing": British PM Starmer rejects calls to resign
  • 2026-05-12T11:31 [Asianet News Netwo] Keir Starmer rejects calls to step down amid electoral setbacks
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would alter the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline is unrelated to the trial and does not provide any relevant information about the case between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.06 )
  • 2026-05-13T16:50 [Cuba Headlines Dig] "Cuba as a 'Monument to Failure': Blistering Critique from Former Argentine Ambassador"
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing testimony and themes without introducing new information that would change the trading outlook.

event timeline

ENTRY 
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.32, "size_usd": 123.83, "target_price": 0.415, "stop_price": 0.215, "broker": "paper", "manual_repair_w2": true, "tx_hash": "0xb9d4cc25ad5a449fad711d3d79b3a2013e8b70c57a409df1dcd9577ee7eac631", "order_id": "0xced12b4cdb74fc10e3a7f98672b84d58d409058e4fe82b72e08129f0e0e860d0"}